. This paper introduces eight factors that affect the international crude oil price:

1. Sudden major political events

in addition to the general commodity attribute, oil also has the attribute of strategic materials, and its price and supply are largely affected by political forces and political situation. In recent years, with the development of political multipolarization, economic globalization and production internationalization, competing for oil resources and controlling oil market has become an important reason for oil market turbulence and soaring oil prices. For example: presidential election, sudden death or resignation of senior leaders, war. 2. Oil inventory change

inventory is a buffer between supply and demand, which has a positive effect on stabilizing oil price. The inventory level of OECD has become an indicator of international oil price, and the impact of commercial inventory on oil price is significantly stronger than that of conventional inventory. When the futures price is much higher than the spot price, oil companies tend to increase the commercial inventory, stimulate the rise of the spot price, and reduce the difference between the spot price and the futures price; when the futures price is lower than the spot price, oil companies tend to reduce the commercial inventory, reduce the spot price, and form a reasonable price difference with the futures price. For example, crude oil inventory data will be published on the third day of each week. OPEC controls the vast majority of the world's remaining oil production capacity, while IEA has a large amount of oil reserves. They can change the market supply and demand pattern in a short period of time, thus changing people's expectations on the trend of oil prices. OPEC's main policy is to limit production and ensure price and reduce price. IEA's 26 member states jointly control large oil inventories to cope with emergencies.

for example: speech, policy, increase or decrease of production of two organizations. 20 since the 90s of the 20th century, the international oil market has been characterized by a significant increase in the impact of the futures market. Although the international crude oil market speculation is not

due to the lack of investment opportunities in the global financial market, a large number of funds enter the international commodity market, especially the crude oil market, which inevitably pushes up the international oil price and seriously deviates from the fundamentals. For example, investment trends of regional countries are directly related to politics and interest rates. 5. Exchange rate change

relevant studies show that there is a weak correlation between oil price changes and exchange rate changes between the US dollar and major international currencies. Due to the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, the real income of oil products priced in US dollars decreased, which led the OPEC to maintain the high price of crude oil as a response measure

for example: most oil transactions are settled in US dollars, and the exchange rate between US dollars and non US currencies will affect oil prices. 6. Abnormal climate

many countries in Europe and the United States use oil as heating fuel. Therefore, when climate change is abnormal, it will cause short-term changes in the demand for fuel oil, thus driving the price changes of crude oil and other oil products. In addition, abnormal weather may cause damage to oil production facilities, leading to supply interruption, thus affecting oil prices.

example: abnormal climate affects supply and demand. in the standard non renewable resource model, the increase of interest rate will lead to the reduction of future mining value compared with the current mining value, so the mining path will be convex to the present and far away from the future. High interest rate will reduce capital investment and lead to smaller initial mining scale; high interest rate will also increase the capital cost of alternative technology and lead to a decline in mining speed.

for example: interest rate changes in major economies of the world, the US, China and the European Central Bank. 8. Tax policy

government intervention will make the market consumption curve protrude to the present or future. The tax effect of cross period oil exploitation depends on the present value of tax which changes with time. For example, a reduction in the present value of taxes over time changes the decision to mine in sequence. Compared with no tax, tax will ultimately reduce the net income at any point in time, which also reduces the enthusiasm of mining in the corresponding period. And taxes will reduce the return on investment in newly discovered reserves.