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TH . factor one: crude oil demand the demand for crude oil is mainly determined by the level of world economic development and changes in economic structure, the development of alternative energy sources and the application of energy-saving technologies. There is a significant positive correlation between global oil consumption and global economic growth rate. Global economic growth or unexpected growth will affect the price rise of international crude oil market. In turn, abnormally high oil prices are bound to hinder the development of the world economy, and the slowdown of global economic growth will affect the increase of oil demand the cost of alternative energy will determine the upper limit of oil price. When the price of oil is higher than the cost of alternative energy, consumers will tend to use alternative energy. Energy conservation will ease the contradiction between supply and demand in the world oil market. At present, all countries are vigorously developing renewable energy and energy-saving technologies, which will certainly have an impact on the long-term trend of oil prices. at present, the data of crude oil demand mainly depends on the oil demand of the United States and other large industrial countries, such as industrial production monthly rate, manufacturing PMI value, etc. factor 2: crude oil supply factors affecting supply mainly include world oil reserves, oil supply structure and oil production cost 1. Oil supply must be based on oil reserves. In the past few decades, the proven reserves of world oil resources have been increasing continuously. However, due to the non renewable nature of oil resources, the International Energy Agency predicts that the world oil production will reach its peak before 2015, and the global oil supply will gradually enter a declining stage. . At present, the suppliers of the world oil market mainly include the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non OPEC countries. OPEC has most of the world's proven oil reserves, and its production and price policies have a significant impact on the world's oil supply and price. The non OPEC countries mainly exist as price acceptors and adjust production according to price P> 3. Oil production cost will also have an impact on oil supply. As a kind of non renewable energy, the production cost of oil will affect the production allocation decision of producers in different periods, then affect the market supply and indirectly cause oil price fluctuations. at present, the impact of supply is mainly quantified by the us EIA crude oil inventory, API crude oil inventory and the output of some large international oil exporting countries. factor three: US dollar index crude oil price has always been closely linked to the US dollar, and its delivery and pricing are settled in US dollar, so the US dollar index will also have an impact on crude oil price. There is a certain inverse correlation between the change of oil price and the change of US dollar index. For example, if the U.S. dollar continues to depreciate and the real income of oil products priced in U. Similarly, if the US dollar appreciates, the oil price will be lowered. factor four: geopolitical conflict among the factors affecting oil prices, geopolitics is one of the important factors that cannot be ignored. In geopolitics, revolutions or riots at home and abroad in the world's major oil producing countries, wars in the Middle East, including terrorist riots around the world, will have a significant impact on oil prices. These are clearly reflected in the historical oil price chart. From 1971 to 2008, the change chart of international oil price can be seen clearly, as long as there is a geopolitical war, it will cause a big fluctuation of oil price. Such as the Islamic Revolution and the Iran Iraq war, Iraq's attack on Kuwait, the 9 / 11 incident of the United States and so on.
